What will the Republican tax cut bill do for most of us — very little! Companies that were already awash with money are supposed to reinvest in their business. The Republicans said those companies would raise wages with their huge tax cuts but there is no reason to believe they will do so. Two reasons for why the expected results won’t happen.
First is immediate expensing of equipment purchased. Hiring more employees or paying existing ones more is the political goal. But labor is almost a point below the 5% considered to be full employment. If productivity (more production with less labor) is to increase with a labor shortage, the companies will have to increase automation. Increasing automation may have an unexpected result — firing existing employees! Making new cars is a great example of robotics replacing people. The result will be decreasing employment. In China cars are built with a smaller percentage of people than the plants here and the same with Chinese distribution facilities. It’s already being planned for those facilities in the Joliet area. This will just speed it up!
Second is the expectation that the CEOs will not spend the increased tax savings by increasing their income, buying back shares to increase share price and thus the CEOs income, or buy other companies. This is idealistic. The last means cutting employment in one or both companies.
These are just two of the (unanticipated?) consequences of giving cash-rich companies even more unneeded money, deductions, and loopholes. After reading the bill’s fine print the National Debt will rise 1.5 to 2 trillion dollars each good economic year and even more during bad years. So much for the Republican keystone philosophy of debt reduction!