Monthly Archives: January 2018

Why Leave Illinois

07 Sunday Jan 2018

Posted by in Illinois, Population

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I grew up in a small town in southern Illinois. During a recent trip back there I met a retired couple who moved back from Wheaton at her request. He had always lived and worked in the suburbs so small town life is a new experience. They now have a newly rehabbed house on six acres with pocket change for real estate tax. He loves it and she wants to move back to Wheaton for its shopping and activities. Few people realize how much they will miss suburban life.

We discussed why people would leave the state when it has such a wide disparity in taxes, terrain, politics, religious fervor, and pace of life. We discovered other areas and how the emigrants may not have researched their new area thoroughly. My wife and I have been looking for a new area to retire for decades. Just like my new friends, a move needs to please both people because it will be our last move! I love the mountains and the roads, she won’t drive in mountains. We don’t want to live in the big city or suburbs. We like green so desert areas are out as is hot summers. Hurricane and flood-prone areas are out as were as tornado alley. Super cold and heavy snow are out, too. Our picks before we retired have already been overrun by retirees and vacationers driving up prices.

Many people decide on a place without taking into consideration all the circumstances. One couple moved to Florida to be near their daughter’s family leaving their son 1,200 miles away. Now they are moving back half way to Tennessee. Their politics and the place they picked in Florida didn’t agree. She likes shopping and museums. Their new area has neither. Leaving family and friends to move to another area can be traumatic. Sometimes one low tax is offset by another tax they hadn’t thought about.

Many of those I know that moved out of state have moved back to their previous area in Illinois. Climate change will cause more to move here as droughts and storms increase.

When I was a construction engineer, I was told there’s only two good jobs; the one I left and the one I am going to. I think moving is the same thing. No matter where we live, problems exist to irritate us

2018 Doesn’t Look Good

03 Wednesday Jan 2018

Posted by in Prognosis

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The news is full of prognostications for 2018 so these are mine. President Trump will create a situation resulting in a war with North Korea in September. The Dow will drop to 21,663 in early October. Two devastating hurricanes will hit the Gulf coast. Two Supreme Court justice seats will become vacant and the President will have trouble filling them. Russia will overplay their social media interference causing Congress to pass more sanctions, Trump will veto, and be overridden.

The U.K.’s exit from the European Union will not be the friendly one Prime Minister May had hoped. China will continue to dominate in trade, will give lip service support to North Korea, will skirmish with India, and will become the world’s leader. Trump will continue isolating America even more. No wall will be built on the southern border. NAFTA negotiations with Mexico and Canada will not go well.

Congress will flip with Democrats taking control of both houses. President Trump will be interviewed by the FBI but will not be indicted, but his son and son-in-law will escape by the narrowest margin. Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who killed the peace agreement in 2016 in order to keep his base with hopes Trump would support a better agreement, will be kicked out of office. Trump’s proclamation to move our embassy makes any kind of Mideast peace deal impossible. Gender harassment continues to be in the news. Putin will win another six year term and will continue pressuring the Baltic countries.

My least likely prognostications are for the Bears to win ten games and me to win the mega-million or power ball. Unfortunately most of the others will happen.

Upended Cone Solution

03 Wednesday Jan 2018

Posted by in Population, Social Security, Workplace

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Speaker Paul Ryan’s greatest fear is the inverted population cone. It represents the aging of Americans. With the necessary reduction in the birth rate, fewer workers will be paying into social security to support retirees.

When FDR put Social Security through Congress, many workers contributed to support the few who managed to live to 65 and enjoy a few years of retirement. Private and public pensions were designed for those few, too.
The problem is twofold. We are living longer and technology. The auto industry is a great example of the problem. Hundreds of people used to be employed to assemble a car but today robots have replaced most of the workers leaving fewer workers to pay into social security and the auto pension fund. Many of the retirees had been replaced by robots.

Ryan says the new tax reduction plan will encourage corporations to give workers more money and upgrade their facilities with more technology. Immediate expensing of technology means companies are more likely to buy more automation increasing productivity and reducing human workers. The loss of every worker decreases the number paying into pensions.

One possible solution is to have the robots pay into the pensions, including social security, 20% of their original cost each year. We can’t stop robots from taking jobs but we can make them pay the pensions to upend the inverted cone. This will mean more “workers” supporting the retirees.

Speaker Ryan says his plan is make Americans productive in bed. This thought process comes from a 1970s philosophy when robots weren’t yet replacing humans. More humans today will simply mean more unemployed and a drain on physical and natural resources. The only light at the end of the tunnel is the one reflecting back from his huge wall of humanity. We have 340 million now and 500 million will only make America worse off!