Monthly Archives: June 2019

National Debt is a Ponzi Scheme

30 Sunday Jun 2019

Posted by in National Debt

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The National Debt is like one of those Ponzi schemes where the people involved get arrested. In the classic scheme an organizer cons some people into investing some money for a high rate of return. The return is their own money. Those people get others to invest increasing the pool. The organizer takes lots of pieces of the pool. The problem occurs when too much is taken out and it ends badly for everyone.

Our government takes in money and pays out more than it takes in. The difference is a yearly deficit and adds to all the other yearly deficits in the National Debt. As the deficits increase, because less money is asked for each year, the result is the debt is increased. At some point the debt will become too great and it will not end well for anyone.

A 40% increase in revenue to just end the deficit is needed. The increase would usually come from income taxes. However the government has re-found an old source of income. Before the income tax, government was funded by tariffs–just like the tariffs we are paying by buying items made in China and other countries. This sneaky back-door tax will not offset the latest tax cuts. Current tariffs are a regressive tax because these are designated to affect the middle and lower tax brackets more than the top brackets.

Need New Ideas to Defend America

24 Monday Jun 2019

Posted by in Military, Uncategorized

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Being Commander-In-Chief is perhaps the most important responsibility for an American President. Should I decide to run as the nominee of the “Chance For Sanity” Party, I may be the most qualified individual in the race. I have studied wars and their causes during the last three thousand years. The saying “History Repeats Itself” is very important in considering how to react to all the crisises we are faced with today and in the future.

Most wars start over a miscalculation and end poorly for both sides. The result of Iraq’s regime change was predictable and will not play out for a few more years until Iraq and Iran merge into some kind of coalition creating a Shia monster bordering Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

In addition to GWB’s Iraq fiasco, LBJ’s Vietnam mismanagement, and FDR’s stopping the sale of strategic materials to Japan, there’s the short-sighted diplomatic efforts which have caused small wars already or will in the next few years. Too often we have looked for an immediate solution and not the future implications.

We have seen every problem as a spike and used a sledgehammer to solve it. Reagan’s invasion of Grenada is a great example of making a mountain out of an ant hill. Presidents often see themselves as the world arbiter and get involved by picking winners and losers in a country’s internal affairs.

We have the third largest military and the most expensive. We pay more than the other top fifteen combined. TR sent the Great White Fleet around the world in a show of power. Trump’s sending a carrier group into a possible conflict with a country using weaponry like Iran or North Korea would be a naval disaster. Iran would send 500 anti-ship missiles at the group which would be lucky to kill fifty.

My plan would be to learn from the past and plan for various future conflicts. We have over 1,300,000 active duty personnel with 858,000 in reserve overseen by over 3,500 flag officers. I would retire 2,000 of them saving a half billion dollars. We have 73 cruisers, 9 frigates, and 64 destroyers mostly escorting carriers. I would stop building target carrier groups for today’s and future conflicts. I would cut the number of f-35s to 200 and buy 600 updated F-18s which are at least equal in combat and far easier and cheaper to maintain. I would start buying artificial intelligence fighter aircraft.

I would at least triple our cyber warfare people and expand their military capabilities at the same time as training our troops to do without modern technology like GPS and internet. Today we do not have the technology lead we used to have so we need to learn to fight the old way as well as future ways.

Life is Complicated

24 Monday Jun 2019

Posted by in Global Life

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As we get older it becomes more difficult to talk and meet with friends and family because of time zones, religion, and diet. We have friends and family we still talk with from Australia to Turkey. Trying to figure out birthday calls is confusing. We have relatives in Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific Time zones so casual calls in the morning or evening requires a pause to calculate.

Our friends meet on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday so we must remember whether it is their attendance day or a special service. Considering whether they are sure to attend is a part of getting together on a possible religious observance times.

Add that into trying to find places to eat and when. Diets are a consideration. Somebody in the group is always on a diet or a vegetarian. Luckily none of our close friends and family observes Ramadan or is vegan. However finding restaurants for vegetarians in many areas is a challenge. One waitress actually had to get the cook to come to the table to discuss whether they could serve our vegetarian friends. They loved Murphysboro’s 17th Street BBQ where he fixed them a great meal a few months later.

When planning a trip, I must also consider pets, age, infirmities, types of entertainment, and kids. Add in some cultural and economic factors and whether we meet or who is driving which vehicle makes planning complicated fun.

Know Your Enemy

24 Monday Jun 2019

Posted by in Iran

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Why does the administration not want to get into a war with Iran? How many readers remember the Iraq-Iran War? Saddam finally decided he couldn’t win after killing thousands of Iranians. Iraq set up a thick mine field in front of their trenches after the Iranians had stopped the Iraqi invasion. Iran didn’t want to lose more soldiers in trying to kick out the Iraqi troops so they sent waves of kids in to blow up the mines with their feet. After them were old civilians, followed by their regular soldiers, and then their elite guards.

The Iraqis used up their massive supply of artillery shells, mortar bombs, and ammunition. Iranians kept coming so the Iraqis fled before being overrun. Their religion was stronger than bullets and mines.

Do you think our naval commanders are going to blow up attacking Iranian missile boats full of babies and small kids? Imagine seeing parts of kids flying through the air on the 5:30 news! A ground attack is absolutely out and we are not going to go after their mobile missile launchers setting in hospital or orphanage yards. The world criticized Syria for doing the same thing. We lambasted Russia for shooting down an airliner in Ukraine but few of us remember we shot down an Iranian airliner, raining people into the Persian Gulf, several years ago. We blamed the Iranian government for letting them fly down an international air route.

The Navy calls the Persian Gulf a bathtub because it is too small an area for a battle group to operate safely. The Iranians have hundreds of anti-ship missiles that would give our Navy a very few minutes to just reduce the number of incoming missiles. The Iranians don’t blink to threats. Who will make the first mistake?

The Middle East Quagmire

13 Thursday Jun 2019

Posted by in Middle Eawst Conflicts

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As an independent party, the “Chance For Sanity” party will have a unique change to solve the problems in the Mid-East. For decades the United States has tried and failed to solve the problem and usually made it worse with one notable exception. Carter’s Began-Sadat Reproachment forty years ago is still keeping another major war from happening.

Why have the rest failed? It is because the Israelis push a guilt trip on us every time we tried to balance the support we give to both sides. Do the Palestinians have cause not to trust the Israel government? Yes! Palestinians allowed the Jewish people to stay in the area for centuries as friends. They fought the Turks together in World War I. The problems started when the Zionists pushed out the British army, declared it a Jewish country, fought neighboring Arab countries, and confiscated Arab owned land without compensation. Palestinians were forced to move to refugee camps in Gaza and Jordan. Israel signed the Oslo Accord agreeing to a two state solution but each time it gets close, Israel comes up with something to kill it and guilt us into saying it wasn’t their fault. We have allowed them to continue taking Arab farms and Palestinian land on the West Bank. Because of these failures the Palestinians have split into a moderate and radical group.

To add to the situation the Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia is supported and directed by Iran. The supply line goes through Syria and Iraq which are becoming more under Iran’s influence.

The Middle East problem has three corners. Two are different sects of the Muslim religion. The third is a paranoid Israel whose leadership creates problems with the Palestinians to stay in power. The Iranian theocracy has dreams of reviving the Persian Empire. Within five years they may have complete control of Iraq or merged into a combined country with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah directing both countries unless we can stop it.

The “best” way to fix the problem is to move our Embassy back to Tel Aviv and quietly tell Israel’s leadership to implement the two states Oslo Accord within one year or our billions in support will stop. We should set up an Arab Bank to fund the new state and move half the people out of Gaza to other Arab countries. Re-starting the nuclear deal with Iran would stop their bomb materials work and get new treaties on ending their connections with the Houthis and Hezbollah armies. We must get Assad and Russia out of Syria so rebuilding can occur and the Syrians in Europe can go back home. Getting Syria stable and controlled by the 74% Sunnis should curb the Shia Iran’s control. Quiet diplomacy to overcome our history of misadventure in Iran might reduce conservative influence and help the moderate “liberals” to take power.

Nationalism is Anathema to Peace

13 Thursday Jun 2019

Posted by in Nationalism

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One of the reasons the “Chance For Sanity” party is needed is because nationalism is rearing its ugly head again. Getting a country’s people to fight the people of another country requires one or two beliefs that must become a part of the group consciousness. A charismatic leader is often the spark that ignites the flame and starting a bloody war. The best example is Adolph Hitler in the 1930s.

Historically the leader needs to incite the majority people into being scared of or hating a minority group. Often in history the minority is a particular religion. Many wars in Europe have been Protestant versus Catholic. Some of our wars have been racial. We killed millions of the people who were here before us so we could get their lands.

Often it isn’t easy to identify the minority if they are the same race and act the same. To ensure the difference, a group of leader’s followers are often needed. Such groups are existing in many countries today. In Europe they are inciting fear and hatred against the Middle Eastern refugees escaping the Syrian War. All nationalists are told the refugees are Muslim terrorists, rapists and will take their jobs. Instead of allowing them refuge until the conflict is over, the Nationalists have taken power in some countries and are trying to win elections in others. Nationalist and racist groups here and around the world have become prominent after years of declining membership helped by Presidential statements and actions. Walls are going up to stop the refugees from entering. Sound familiar?

Many wars are fought over economic issues. After World War I, Germany was left destitute making it easier for Hitler to persuade his people they were being held back by their inferiors. He pumped money into building roads and other infrastructures to put Germans to work.

The Japanese had been fighting the Chinese for several years when President Franklin Roosevelt put sanctions on Japan’s industries and stopped the sale of oil, refined products, and scrap metal to them in a misguided attempt to stop the war. It not only didn’t stop the Japanese war with China, it started one with us and the French and British colonies in Southeast Asia. Sound familiar?

My plan for America’s foreign policy is to end our country’s nationalistic bent that the current administration is stoking by Trump’s public utterances. Abrogating treaties in the hopes of getting another one by threatening war, tariffs, and sanctions will be ended. Our policy of tamping down Nationalism in their countries will be a priority.

Regaining trust and respect for the United States must be foremost in negotiating with allies and enemies. We must speak with cohesive sanity and not bluster!

This Lifeboat is Only So Big

13 Thursday Jun 2019

Posted by in Population

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As critical a problem as the other planks of the “Chance For Sanity” party’s platform, this plank can only be partially solved by the American government. Our leaders have been concerned about flipping the population pyramid for decades. The pyramid is a representation of age groups and workers.

We currently have over 330 million people living in our country. The 2020 census should give us a closer number if it is done without bias and properly publicized. We have millions of undocumented people needing to be counted so census takers must be seen as non-threatening.

Natural increase from our current residents will add over sixty-five million people by 2050. The number of immigrants – legal and illegal – may add another 10 – 15 million to the natural growth. Both may mean we will have upwards of 420 million people looking for places to live, food to eat, clean water to drink and bathe, schools to educate, and jobs.

Rising ocean levels will cause people living in coastal cities to move to higher ground in the crowded cities, suburbs, or farther inland like Floridians. Many coastal cities are already experiencing flooding during high tides. They are changing building codes and zoning to try to get in front of the 50 year projected seawater rise. By the end of the century much of Florida may be flooded during king high tides and hurricanes. Those displaced Americans who choose to leave the flooding cities will most likely move to inland cities causing further congestion.

The additional growth will put more pressure on cities trying to absorb the increasing population with their aging infrastructure. All forms of transportation will be affected and need to be repaired from heavier use. This problem was covered by the infrastructure plank.

We must try to limit world-wide population growth by giving out all forms of free contraceptives to the developing countries. People must understand that having two kids is not replacement because they often have great-great grandchildren before they die. Chairman Mao’s idea of one child per couple only slowed their increase. My plan would be to eliminate all tax deductions and subsidies after one child. Decades ago we needed more children to work the fields and businesses so we promoted child rearing and that must end. I will use the tax code to subsidize couples with no children.

Economists have feared the flipping of the population pyramid for decades but we cannot continue to add billions forever. The sooner we address this problem the easier the reforms will be. Levees and walls will not stop a tsunami of starving people. Our lifeboat is already filled with people, so we must keep people in their home countries and reduce their population growth.

Two Mostly Thumbs Up Votes

11 Tuesday Jun 2019

Posted by in Taxes

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As frequent readers know I am completely and absolutely against medical marijuana because hemp has the same supposed medical value without THC’s mind altering effects.

The state just passed the recreational law making its use legal. My Republican Representative, David Welter, was designated by his leadership to make the law bi-partisan. This gave him a unique and outsized opportunity to shape the law. He was able to allow businesses and communities to ban its use. Imagine if it hadn’t been added to the law. We could have had stoners running our nukes. I’m afraid we will still have drivers of cars and big rigs high and the drug is active for hours and days.

We still disagree on whether he should have tilted at the windmill and voted against it but at least he made it more palatable than it would have been without his input. I can give him a little better than a tepid “thanks for your work.”

He also voted for the nineteen cent raise in the gas tax. He expected I would be displeased in his vote to raise but I told him, I had been pushing for 25 cents. So drivers, I can give him a bent thumbs-up for getting 80%. I told him my current Cherokee gets twice the mileage of my van so I pay half the gas tax for the same wear on the roads. A greater tax was necessary.

I also explained my proposal on Toll Roads which affect only the big rigs which cause the most damage. He said he would look into the Rhode Island plan which is where I got the idea.

Two Anniversaries for Freedom

09 Sunday Jun 2019

Posted by in Freedom

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The first week in June was one of two critical anniversaries in world history. One was D-Day, seventy-five years ago over 20,000 men died attacking and defending the beaches and the inland. The allied side was mainly from the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. Refugees from occupied Europe and the French and United Kingdom colonies participated. On the other side were German, Ukrainian, and other occupied countries’ soldiers.

Alternative historians are people who look at what would have happened if something hadn’t happened the way it did. They make a strong argument that the allies’ greatest contribution was causing Hitler to keep a few hundred thousand troops on the West Wall area in case we landed. Their point is the Russians would have defeated the Germans in another year. I believe had we not, the iron curtain would have been the English Channel and the U.S.S.R. would still exist.

June 4 was the thirtieth anniversary of the end of the Tienanmen Square Demonstrations for more freedoms in China. For weeks average citizens camped out on the park gaining in numbers and support around the country. The moderate Chinese Communist leaders were allowing the demonstrations to slowly open up the society. The old conservatives couldn’t tolerate the openness and finally persuaded the moderates to end the demonstrations. The resulting use of the military by conservative generals caused the death of thousands of demonstrators to the horror of the moderates.

Both events are in the history books. One is recorded as a great victory and the other as a failed attempt in true democracy. I hope both will be remembered by future people as to their importance. Today thousands are on the D-Day beaches and the Chinese army is keeping everyone away from Tienanmen Square.

It’s Not All Theories

03 Monday Jun 2019

Posted by in Climate Change, Global Warming, Religion

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Roger Kempa writes Global Warming, The Big Bang, and Socialism are all just theories. Global Warming is not a theory; it is a concrete fact. The world’s temperature is rising and all the predicted effects are happening. To argue against it is to throw out all the science for the last 200 years. It’s simple science that you can test with your own home supplies and equipment. The oceans are at rising! Ask Miami and the millions moving to higher ground!

Mr. Kempa says the Big Bang creation of the Universe is a theory but observation of the Universe supports the theory. Something is a theory until it can be replicated and that can’t happen with the Big Bang. The Biblical creation isn’t a theory because there is nothing to support it so it doesn’t rate a hypothesis level. The Biblical creation is faith and faith is to believe in something that has no reasonable explanation.

Many Socialist societies have existed and succeeded in the past. Most ultimately failed because of forces outside the community. One of the best examples was the Shakers. They died out because they didn’t believe in sex and wouldn’t take in new members. Go to New Harmony, Indiana for the buildings and the history.

There are no pure economies existing today unless it is some unknown tribe somewhere. We pollute Edens when we find them. Roger’s examples were blends of socialism and or communism. Our society is a blend and I am sure 99% of us would not want to live in a purely capitalist country. Global Warming is reducing the number of icebergs to put people on and that’s more than a metaphor for today’s societies.