During an episode of Hogan’s Heroes, Sergeant Schultz said “Women are like wars, there is always another one”. Europe used to have a big multi-national war every few years until World War II. Thanks to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Europe hasn’t had a big war since WWII. After the Soviet Union broke up, the members got less scared and committed to war games and expenditures.
Trump harassed the members to spend three percent of their budgets which was good but his pro-Putin discussions and statements agitated the other members. According to his Security Advisor, John Bolton, Trump’s second term’s objective was to leave NATO. Without the United States to keep the organization functioning and ready to defend its members, Russia would be able to pick off the old USSR countries and maybe all of Europe. They did nothing when Putin annexed part of Georgia and the Ukraine so Putin thought their weakness would allow him to take all of Ukraine and then Moldova.
What has happened is the opposite. The old USSR countries and the rest of Europe have moved into lockstep with the other Europeans. The United States has reassumed the role as leader much to Putin’s surprise and agitation. Most of the world’s countries are sanctioning Putin, his cronies, and Russia. Switzerland joined into the efforts for the first time. Sweden and Finland are starting the process to join NATO. Moldova is considering its options to join the European Union and NATO.
The war with Ukraine’s army has shown Russia’s army isn’t the image Putin proclaimed. After three weeks his invasion force is bogged down and wanting more help. The war has become a disaster for Putin’s plan of greatness for Russia and himself.