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Commentary About the Blue Marble

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Commentary About the Blue Marble

Category Archives: Population

Replacement Rates

02 Friday May 2025

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Birth Rates, Population

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donald-trump, elon-musk, News, politics, Trump

        The American administration and others have suddenly started talking about our low birth rate. A 2.1 is supposed to be an equalized and balanced population. I think that is an old ratio since Americans are living several years longer than when that number was made. The reasons are many around the world. Some parts of the world are two and three times the replacement number. Most African countries are well over. Israel is 2.89 and Russia is supposed to be getting smaller and the war should be making the gender ratio greater.

            One reason for the change is the ratio between men and women. Decades ago more males were produced than females but for some reason genetics has changed causing more females. The United States ratio of women to men is 100 to 97. In China with their old one child policy (it’s 100 to 112) causing their ratio to be 1.18. Mao’s policy has been replaced with Xi’s two kids but couples still favor one child.

            President Trump suggested a bonus would help so he would like to give the parents $5,000. My hospital said the pre, post and delivery costs would be about twice that amount and much higher in big cities.

            President Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk have been talking about the problems of a declining birth rate when they are pushing to bring manufacturing back. If you listen carefully to Musk (a South African) and Trump (a closet racist) they want more white babies instead of black or brown. Of course Musk says his robots will be the needed workforce.

            The problem is traditionally those jobs whites don’t want are done by those brown people they are exporting. They have made up for the falling birth rate by increasing our population.

Fourteen Years for Another Billion

20 Saturday May 2023

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Population

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        Demographers think we reached the first Billion in population around 1802. The second Billion was 1927. The third was 32 years later. The fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth were twelve years apart. Last year the 8,000,000,000th was added to the population.

            The ninth billion will probably be reached about fourteen years from now or 2036. Some believe the following 14 years may see an addition of only 700 million by 2050. The pandemic killed millions but that was just a drop in the overall population. Wars like the Ukraine don’t even rate a blip. Climate change may slow the rate since it is already killing tens of thousands from flooding and starvation in Northern Africa.

            Creating the problem is healthcare for the aged who now are able to live longer so the old axiom of replacing oneself is outdated. Today it is not uncommon for a person to have their great, great grandchildren at their birthday party. That isn’t replacement; it’s an explosion. Even if it was only two kids per family that number at the party could be 30 descendants. I’m 75 with no offspring to suffer the future.

            Social Security was invented by FDR to help the senior citizen survive after retirement because pension plans didn’t exist for many people. Many people contributed to support each retiree but now that number may be around one to one which is impossible budget wise.

            With less people of working age to support the retirees the influx of immigrants is necessary for a good economy. The problem is the necessary influx increases the future number of retirees while increasing our total population. We have a housing shortage today at 340 million. What will it be like at 400 or 500 million? Just think! Only fourteen years to NINE BILLION!

Unpleasant Future

22 Tuesday Nov 2022

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Population

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        My first knowledge of population projections occurred about 1970 during one of my geography courses. Amazingly those projections haven’t changed much. Did the experts see a culture change in the advanced countries, cheap and easily available birth control, and advances in keeping people alive longer?

            The United Nations’ experts stated the eight billionth person was born somewhere on November 15. Their projections are another half billion in eight years and an additional 1.2 billion by 2050. Imagine 9,500,000,000 in another 28 years. Where will they live, how will they live, where will their food come from, and how will Climate change affect them?

            Most of the growth is said to be from Africa but India is going to surpass China with the largest population. China’s economic problem is shared by many other countries. Their population is skewing towards an older population which has retired from working. This means less people are working to support a greater retired group living longer. Cultural changes dictate small families using birth control and advancing health services keeping people alive longer.

            Climate change is causing a real disruption in where people will be living. The news is full of people needing to find other places to live due to drought, starvation, war and economic disruption. The Syrian War was caused by drought which caused Syrians to flee to Europe and Turkey. Drought in Africa is the reason for the exodus to Europe. A major cause of the immigration to the United States from Latin America is cropland destruction. Many low countries and island nations are preparing for the ocean to flood their surface land. Together with low lying cities a couple of billion will need to go some somewhere higher. They will be moving to much needed farmland.

Most Valuable Land

01 Thursday Sep 2022

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Population

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population growth

            Our house sits on one and one-half acres in a rural subdivision. More houses will soon be built as more land is to be developed. This land represents our little piece of the planet because when we bought the lot in 1977 the World’s population was about 4,000,000,000. Shortly after November the World’s population should pass 8,000,000,000. By the end of this decade 8,500,000,000 is probable. Twenty more years will add 1,200,000,000 more. By the end of the century the world’s population could reach 12,000,000,000. See why we value our little piece of the Planet?

            The United States will grow from today’s 340,000,000 to nearly 500,000,000 by mid-century and possibly 750,000,000,000 in 2100. Why are projections higher than what will probably happen? Climate change will reduce the population because of starvation and thirst. Here we will see major disruptions as those people who live in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, California, Utah, Nevada, and Oklahoma are going to be looking for water. Instead of moving south, all those people and industries will be going back North.

            When a futurist looks at food production they will want to see where the cattle are raised and the vegetables, fruit, and nuts are grown. California is already reducing water for crops and orchards. A cow requires over ten gallon of water a day. California is a major dairy producer. Tens of thousands of acres of alfalfa hay are required to feed them and most of it is on irrigated ground.

            See why we value our little piece of the World?

Catch 22

08 Wednesday Jun 2022

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Immigration, Population

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            Somewhere around 1970, one of my college classes made me aware of the population boom and its projections for the future. At that time the world had about three and a half billion people and now we are closing in on nine billion. The average age of that population is rapidly increasing putting pressure on Social Services, Social Security, Medicare, and the labor market.

            We currently have over 340 million with 60 million over 65 years of age. 74 million are under 18 years old. Adding both together means at least 134 million are not of working age leaving 200 million possible. We know 10s of millions of those remaining are unable to work for one reason or another. 20 of those millions have disabilities making them unable to do any work.

            As our population has grown, we demand more goods and services. Much of the services must be performed in America but our goods have been off shored to keep costs low. Geo-political conditions and transportation problems tell us that those foreign plants can’t always supply items on time. The government and companies are going to re-shore thousands of those plants needing people to work at them. America is close to 100 percent employment. Even if a few million decided to un-retire we won’t have enough people to do all the work.

            Many jobs do not have people wanting to do them because they are strenuous and low paying. As much as most Americans dislike seeing people walking across the Southern border, we need them doing those jobs. Those people not from crime ridden and terrorism countries will be retiring back in their home country.

            We need a way for most of those people to come in and work in the vegetable field, landscaping, medical facilities, and many other places dependent on lightly trained people.

Need A Place to Stand?

19 Tuesday Apr 2022

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Population, Uncategorized

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            What is the greatest threat to the World’s economic stability and to its human and animal populations? No, it’s not war although it might help or make the situation worse. The problem is the population is on a train with a rapidly increasing speed heading towards a mountain side.

            You see, a hundred year ago the population was growing with young people being more dominant than older people. We died shortly before or after retiring. That meant plenty of workers and few retirees for long.

            Today the birth rate for many countries is less than the stability rate meaning the population without immigration is decreasing. China just raised the limit to three kids when women weren’t having two. They need people working and in the military. Fewer workers to support the economy would be an economic collapse. Italy is the latest country to plead its women to have more kids.

            The train scenario is relevant because as we ageing and living longer so there are more people on the planet. Currently there are about 7.5 billion. Projections are 9 billion by 2050 and 12 by 2100. Although the pandemic killed more of the older population it didn’t rate a blip in the projections. We could have over a half billion in this country by 2100 without greater immigration. At our rate of aging and decreasing workforce, we will need more people crossing the border for work.

            Image the year 2200 with 35 billion thirsty starving people trying to find a place to stand.    

We Are Doing It to Ourselves

18 Tuesday Feb 2020

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Climate Change, Population

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Imagine 9,700,000,000 people on this little planet by 2050 or 2,000,000,000 more than today. The U.N. predictions are 11,000,000,000 by 2100 or twice 1995’s population. Several countries have an aging population so they are trying to grow workers with incentives. It means rushing to an overpopulated end.

As the oceans rise and flood coastal cities, islands, and low lying countries around the world, where will the climate migrants, domestic and foreign, live? The latest estimate is at least a rise of six feet flooding most major coastal cities by 2100. Many are planning to build dikes like New Orleans. Others like Miami are planning to raise the streets and ground floors. Some countries may lose many thousands of square miles and their populations will need to go somewhere else! Where?

The migration has already started. The Syrian Civil war started because of a long term drought forcing farmers into cities. Some Pacific Islanders have started leaving their islands because their islands are getting smaller as the sea around them rises. Bangladesh is a low country that regularly floods from heavy rains in the Himalayas. Even now much of the delta is staying flooded forcing the people to leave for higher ground in the north.

For two centuries science has known small amounts of carbon dioxide over the optimal historical amount will cause the Earth to warm and the more it increases the warmer the Earth gets. So why is our government the only country not working on a national plan? All seventeen science agencies and all four branches of military are preparing for the future. Why is the far right duping people into disbelieving the facts? It’s about to hit the fan and they don’t care. Why?

Unpleasant Facts

14 Sunday Jul 2019

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Population

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Bob Wyman says my opinions are narrow-minded and unsubstantiated. Bob, everything you read with my name is factual and not off Fox News or the websites (Russian?) that you must use to get your information. You said my claims about climate change were unsubstantiated and wild predictions. I am quite confident of my predictions since seventeen out of seventeen federal science agencies and all three branches of the military and the coast guard agrees with me. So do the people in the cities and areas I said were already flooding from the rising oceans. Bob, hop in your car and wade the streets at high tides in those towns.

You criticized my population crisis projections which are readily available from many sources. Yes, my solutions were drastic and radical but the time to cut growth was years ago. Look around you Bob; we now have over 330 million in the United States. Imagine 500 or 600 million which we may have by the end of the century! I bet you are a baby boomer. When you were born the population was maybe 3 billion. It is now over 7 billion and growing. We are not going to get help from any religious group because they want to grow the faithful faster than the others. Currently we subsidize growth. The bigger the family, the bigger the subsidy. I suggested we need to eliminate deductions, spread contraceptives, and make the growth a moral issue. Bob, if you have ideas better than the ones I promulgated, the world awaits them.

The projections for temperature increase and rise of sea levels are for the end of the century and not for the centuries after. Those projections have already been found to be too conservative so your plans are urgently needed!

This Lifeboat is Only So Big

13 Thursday Jun 2019

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Population

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As critical a problem as the other planks of the “Chance For Sanity” party’s platform, this plank can only be partially solved by the American government. Our leaders have been concerned about flipping the population pyramid for decades. The pyramid is a representation of age groups and workers.

We currently have over 330 million people living in our country. The 2020 census should give us a closer number if it is done without bias and properly publicized. We have millions of undocumented people needing to be counted so census takers must be seen as non-threatening.

Natural increase from our current residents will add over sixty-five million people by 2050. The number of immigrants – legal and illegal – may add another 10 – 15 million to the natural growth. Both may mean we will have upwards of 420 million people looking for places to live, food to eat, clean water to drink and bathe, schools to educate, and jobs.

Rising ocean levels will cause people living in coastal cities to move to higher ground in the crowded cities, suburbs, or farther inland like Floridians. Many coastal cities are already experiencing flooding during high tides. They are changing building codes and zoning to try to get in front of the 50 year projected seawater rise. By the end of the century much of Florida may be flooded during king high tides and hurricanes. Those displaced Americans who choose to leave the flooding cities will most likely move to inland cities causing further congestion.

The additional growth will put more pressure on cities trying to absorb the increasing population with their aging infrastructure. All forms of transportation will be affected and need to be repaired from heavier use. This problem was covered by the infrastructure plank.

We must try to limit world-wide population growth by giving out all forms of free contraceptives to the developing countries. People must understand that having two kids is not replacement because they often have great-great grandchildren before they die. Chairman Mao’s idea of one child per couple only slowed their increase. My plan would be to eliminate all tax deductions and subsidies after one child. Decades ago we needed more children to work the fields and businesses so we promoted child rearing and that must end. I will use the tax code to subsidize couples with no children.

Economists have feared the flipping of the population pyramid for decades but we cannot continue to add billions forever. The sooner we address this problem the easier the reforms will be. Levees and walls will not stop a tsunami of starving people. Our lifeboat is already filled with people, so we must keep people in their home countries and reduce their population growth.

Humanity’s Real Future?

04 Thursday Oct 2018

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Ecology, Population

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Many of you will stop reading this in a few moments because it is too depressing. I have been concerned about the future of the human race since I was in college. I studied population demographics and growth, climatic change, agriculture, and several similarly diverse subjects in getting my masters in geography. If this sound contemporary, you are wrong. I graduated in 1971. That was 4 years ago and ever since, I have been gathering more knowledge about the future and positing a theory. It isn’t good for humanity.

Our planet’s resources are finite. We have gone through the high quality minerals and are now using lower quality that are more expensive to mine and thus more destructive to the environment. Examples are Minnesota’s iron ore is a third of the percentage of the iron being mined in the 1940s and gold miners are happy with grams per ton instead of ounces. Petroleum reserves peaked in March 2003 because we are using it faster than technology is finding new fields or increasing recovery methods in old fields.

Other examples are seafood. I remember one text stating the sea could supply enough food for the world indefinitely. Now we are down to eating the baitfish that was used to catch higher quality fish. Commercial fishing is totally banned in some areas, and fishing for some species is limited to hours. Forests, a natural carbon sink, are being cut down for immediate profit and farming. Four acres was lost in the time you read this sentence.

Perhaps the most important loss is fresh water. Less than 3% of all water, liquid and solid, is fresh. About 3/4% is surface (rivers and lakes), about 1%, and quickly being depleted, is underground. The remaining is in rapidly melting glaciers and icebergs. Less rainwater is staying on the surface because it is coming in heavier rainfalls causing floods which run off rather than soak in. Drought, deforestation, and development cause much flooding around the world. Former potable water is again being treated as a waste dump which negates it’s usage for drinking, ecosystems, and irrigation. Water rights are being treated as long term investments.

A less immediate but terminal danger is the decreasing level of oxygen. Oxygen levels are around 24-25% when our species started and now it is about 20%. We have known for a century that our current supply is produced by the remaining trees on land and decreasing protozoa in the oceans acting as carbon sinks. We owe our existence to the microscopic organism that filled the primordial oceans, pulling the carbon out of the air (bringing oxygen levels to 30% or more), dying and falling into the bottom to make oil. We are destroying the forests and jungles and recently scientists have found those little ocean creatures are rapidly decreasing in numbers. One estimate is oxygen levels could get to the fatal levels for many people (same as at the 15,000 foot altitude) in 200 years. 25,000 feet in 300 years, and 400 years would even kill off the rest of the mammalian life that had not adapted to the lower oxygen levels.

The last and most critical is population. When I was in college the world’s population was 3 billion. Now it’s over 7 billion and somewhere around 2043 it will be 9 billion barring mass starvation, lack of drinking water or war. Nuclear or biological war would be necessary since conventional with 1-2 million deaths wouldn’t make a dent in the curve. Projections on how to feed the growing population always seems to rely on some great leap which only accelerates the population growth problem. Incidentally the United States may be over 420 million by 2043 with 82 million over 65.

These are only a few of the problems that the human race faces in its future. Steven Hawking projected we could be facing extinction in 200 years. He gives climate change (read between lines above) as the major cause of our demise. I won’t argue with the world’s greatest mind, especially if he agrees with me.

The 140 million Chinese have already started to provide for feeding their future people. They have been buying up land around the world. Here they have bought up businesses which produce food. A recent purchase was Smithfield which is a huge meat processor. They see what’s coming, we don’t!

This planet will exist until the sun goes nova and destroys it in a few billion years. We will have long passed from the scene. Frankly, I think Steve Hawking is being optimistic. I think our way of life will be greatly depreciated by 2100 and the probability of a population crash to less than a billion is highly probable.

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