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Commentary About the Blue Marble

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Commentary About the Blue Marble

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History Does Repeat

17 Monday Jul 2017

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Uncategorized

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History

When talking with people I find a sad lack of knowledge of History. Not just American History but World History. I doubt many Americans can name more than twenty presidents much less in order. English students learn all the kings, queens, their date of reign, and their wars. We brush through our history by hitting the high points in less than 80 hours of classroom teaching. Most American students never get any World History so they can’t understand the whys of events, religions, animosities or why we are involved.

Americans can’t understand why we are involved in many parts of the world that may not be publicly friendly to America. A lack of historical knowledge is often the reason for our personal and national misunderstandings and mistakes. President Trump says the world is more complicated than he thought. Much of the pseudo-facts on social media and websites depend on the reader being ignorant of history and geo-politics. To understand geo-politics one must know history.

Americans don’t understand national, ethnic, and religious animosities over something that happened hundreds of years ago. Six centuries ago the Ottoman Turks did a death march on hundreds of thousands of ethnic Serbs and the Serbs have not forgotten. Thus the ethnic Serb hatred embedded in the European Community negotiations with Turkey.

An even longer animosity/hatred is the schism in the Muslim religion. Both the Sunni and Shia sects have the same God as Jews, Protestants and Catholics. Both believe Mohammed was a prophet. The difference is who was the prophet’s successor. The fighting between the two sects started in 632 when Sunnis supported Caliph (ISIS leader is called Caliph.) and the Sunni supported Mohammad’s son-in-law. Iran is 95% Shia and Iraq is 65% Shia. The rest of the Arab world is Sunni and Sunni controlled. That is why the mid-east is such a mess today. No open wars today but proxy wars are almost continuous.

Another example is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the animosity certain groups in the United States have for it. Thanks to NATO, Europe has not had a war since 1945. It was a huge part of why the Soviet Union fell apart. The Eastern European countries, formerly Warsaw Pact and now NATO, are now safe from the invasions from Putin’s Russia. Non-NATO Georgia and Ukraine have lost parts of their nations to Russian invasions. Technically all three countries are geologically European but most people don’t use that distinction.

As long as we provide the leadership, umbrella and bases, war in Europe won’t occur within or without European NATO. Trying to pit member against another, as the President is doing, defeats the purpose of NATO.

A lack of historical knowledge means an administration is ignorant of how and why Iran considers the United States to be their mortal enemy. We caused the overthrow of their leaders and put the Shah in power. We helped him to brutalize his people. Any Iranian discussion with American is difficult because of our meddling. Our purpose was to use Iran as a sheriff over the other Persian Gulf countries with undependable kingdoms. Control of the Persian Gulf was mandatory to continue the flow of oil.

Another problem with the history we are taught in school it’s idealistic. We are taught the high points of our History and make early American’s and events heroic. We aren’t told the real stories of the founding fathers or events so today’s leaders seem to be less than those early heroes.

Two great examples are the Boston Tea Party and Thomas Jefferson’s slave concubine. The Tea Party raid was conducted by a bunch of drunks from a local tavern egged on by smugglers promising more ale, not a bunch of patriotic rebels.

Is it a good idea to make students believe people in the past were exemplary and events were extraordinary? How can kids respect leaders of today if they are compared with fictional characters they studied in school? When they are taught an idealistic fiction with a brief overview, it is no wonder people don’t know the how or why in today’s world.

Hours of Peace

18 Sunday Jun 2017

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Politics, Uncategorized

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The night of the Alexandra, Virginia ball field shooting, the four main leaders asked their senators and representatives to tone down their rhetoric about the other party and each other. Even Trump said much the same thing — his tone-down lasted until 5:00 a.m.

Two representatives and a senator violated that suggestion in attacking the liberals by saying they caused it. All three are well-known attack dogs for the G.O.P. so perhaps they should look in a mirror.

Another attack came forth from one who wasn’t sure how long he could hold back because the people who he represented wanted him to attack the liberals. It’s the not my fault excuse! Wouldn’t it be great to have a president and 535 moderates in Washington D.C.?

A Catastrophic War

11 Sunday Jun 2017

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Uncategorized

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Bush I, Bush II, Clinton, Obama, Reagan, Wars

Many of the people I talk with are very concerned about how President Trump is communicating with North Korea. Some are extremely scared he will start or goad North Korea into a bloody war with U.S. and South Korea. They are concerned because we have never had a less competent, less prepared, less knowledgeable President at the start of a bloody war. He does have three capable military advisors to guide him and his inexperienced cabinet. People on both sides of the aisle express concern.

At least four previous Presidents should have done more than put a few sanctions on North Korea. They did next to nothing and left it for another President to confront them. On and off sanctions only increased their isolation and paranoia. Sanctions do not work when a country cannot be contained, doesn’t have a financial base, or a long land border with two supporting allies.

I have studied conflicts and the geo-politics from the Peloponnesian Wars to Desert Storm. Most wars have started because of economics, religion, territory, or the leader’s personality. The God-like personality cult North Korea’s 25 million people have for Kim Jong Un means his people will fight to the death for him.

Strategically and tactically any war with the North will mean the destruction of the South’s capitol area killing hundreds of thousands. Un will hit our bases in Japan and Okinawa with nuclear or non-nuclear weapons pulling Japan into it. Few wars limit the number of participants to the original two.

If President Trump’s administration can somehow keep China and Russia out of the fighting supporting North Korea, he may decide this is the “last best time” to affect regime change ending the threat to our mainland

The war will be extremely violent and last a few months at most. America’s and South Korea’s military will lose thousands, North Korea will lose most of its 1.2 million army, and many hundreds of thousands of Korean civilians will die.

Will Americans rally behind Trump if he goes to war? Will Congress support a war? Will the people support or condemn him? Is there a “last best time” to kill millions to maybe save tens of millions?

—END—

Future Occupations in Doubt

06 Tuesday Jun 2017

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Uncategorized

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Jobs Market - U.S.

A FedEx ad has a little robot being allowed into a place by a human. How prophetic! In the future that guard will be a robot, too. Will and Grundy Counties have brought in lots of warehouses for real estate taxes and unskilled jobs. Within a few years most of those jobs will be robotic.

Rudimentary artificial intelligence (A.I.) can replace most of those jobs now at a cheaper price, at a more reliable rate, and for a 24 hour workday. Most of the rest will be replaced by higher A.I. that is being designed now.

The future of those warehouses is this: an autonomous truck brings the products to the warehouse where it is unpacked, shelved, repackaged per an order, put on an autonomous vehicle, and delivered to the customer. This level of A.I. and the machine to do it are here now or a few years away.

Every time I see an interview with an A.I. or robotic engineer, the number of jobs I foresee a teenager aspiring to do reduces. Robots are learning to be nurses and doctors. A.I. is teaching kids without any human teacher. Truck drivers and garbage collectors can already be replaced. Factories to build houses are now being automated so robots can build and ship pre-fabricated sections to the site. Robots are being designed to do the site work.

Is it possible for a sit down restaurant or a fast food to operate without any human? I can foresee the day when every human occupation could be done better by a robot.

What will happen to the ninety-nine percent needing work to survive? None of the “Star Trek Series” or “The Jetson’s” tells us. Only the “Terminator” gives me insight. We have opened a Pandora’s Box.

The New Swamp Smells Worse

16 Tuesday May 2017

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Presidency

Donald Trump campaigned on going to Washington to “Drain the Swamp”. After becoming President he has created an even larger and smellier swamp on his own. His business and his enormous ego are now entwined with the Presidency. In business he had allowed the ego to come forward as a showboat and grandstander. In business he was the face of a real estate company where his direction and decision didn’t require approval by anyone else. Today he does executive orders that are mostly meaningless without congress’ approval.

He says he has turned over his company’s operation to his son and a company officer but he meets quietly with them on a regular basis at company properties. His promotes his properties by his weekend visits to Florida, New Jersey, Scotland, and New York City. His Florida Gold Club has filled it’s $500,000 plus membership. Russians and others have bought condos in the NYC Tower where wife and son live. Before the election many floors were empty. The D. C. hotel was losing money until November when foreign countries took long term bookings on rooms and started doing galas and meetings in Ballrooms.

His family is no slouch in using the White House prestige to promote their own companies. His daughter’s fashion business continues to expand as she continues to push its products. His son-in-law’s sister went to China to sell green cards before Trump signed the bill extending the law he had said was wrong. Her first sales meetings were just afterward.

Many of the people he has nominated are billionaires and multi-multi-millionaires who now have influence over people who oversee their businesses.

The odor of the new swamp covers up the fragrance of the old swamp.

—END—

Tranquility versus Progress

09 Tuesday May 2017

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Transportation

I grew up in southern Illinois on a farm and in a small town. I went to a rural Kentucky college where I got a Master’s Degree in Geography with an emphasis in industrial and urban planning. My wife and I have taken many vacations in the lower forty-eight states where we avoided noisy built-up areas where possible. We live in a rural subdivision where we can enjoy the relative quite.

My lifestyle and training shows how I am conflicted by the Great Lakes Basin Transportation, Inc’s plans to build a much needed railroad and highway around the Chicago bottleneck. My training tells me it will be a transformative economic boon and destroy the area’s tranquility. I can totally understand the feelings of those people living within five miles of the proposed railroad and highway because it will definitely change the area’s rural complexion. It will upset farms, pollute the air, close hundred of small roads, and change the communities nearby forever.

The “positives” of the proposal is the long term economic benefits. Manufacturing, warehousing, and residential will explode. Dying communities will grow from the boost and thousands of people will move to be nearer to the roads. Poor school districts will grow and build new schools, towns will grow, and prosperity will to some areas that are losing hope.

All of this will happen within the next three or four decades if the roads are build. I doubt if another issue will ever be as contentious as this one in this area. I don’t know how I would vote if given the chance. I am sure thousands of other people are going to have to fall off the fence, too.

Millions will be spent, thousands will protest at meetings, the social media will roar, and politicians will speak out of both sides of their mouths, but the big, big money will ultimately be the deciding factor, as always.

—END—

Buying President’s Ear and Pen

18 Tuesday Apr 2017

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President

The White House is not going to release the visitor’s list so those people’s advice can be kept secret. In order to see where some of those scary plans are started we need to look at who is on the economic advisory council.

One says Trump must do away with a rule to make railroad tankers have double walls so they don’t leak during accidents. (Remember all the recent leaks and fires, plus trains going through your town.) The why is his company owns hundreds of the old single wall tankers.

Another is pushing to cut back on regulations and regulators in the Gulf of Mexico. You guessed it, he is a BP executive. They learned nothing from the Deep Water Horizon disaster.

Apparently every person on that advisory council has a regulation or law they want eliminated. The financials want to go back to pre-Great Recession rules. The coal miners want to pollute the air and streams and ecology forever. The oil industry wants to drill wells in the National Parks.

Trump has over $40,000,000 in his re-election campaign. Much of it is from these people and companies on that advisory council. They have bought the President’s ear and his pen on executive orders.

Unstable Leaders Can Kill

31 Friday Mar 2017

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Military, Uncategorized

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International Relations, Presidents

October, 1962, I was a high school sophomore. I still remember watching some of our neighbors suddenly digging “Root Cellars” during the Cuban Missile Crisis. People around the world were nervous about an imminent nuclear war. Our neighbors were terrified because McLeansboro had been the Initial Aiming Point for mock attacks on Evansville. Seeing B-52s and their contrails left a lasting impression.

JFK and his experienced, level-headed advisors averted the catastrophe by his and Khrushchev’s agreement being trusted. When the evidence of the Cuban missiles was being shown to allied leaders, DeGalle said it wasn’t necessary because the President was an honorable man.

Both leaders operated under Mutual Assured Destruction policy which meant a war would destroy both nations and likely the entire planet. Both knew a misstatement or an unplanned action could launch either country’s missiles.

Secretary of State Tillerson recently came close to saying we were prepared to make a first launch in order to hit North Korea’s missiles and nuclear facilities before they launch.

Kim Jung Um is unstable, megalomaniac, and like Hitler, has no regard for his people. People know his statements have little meaning. Kim has stated his missiles could destroy all the American bases in South Korea and Japan. How does anyone know when it’s a warning or bluster? We have ICBMs targeting his country; when do we launch? How can we be certain of hitting every mobile launcher?

Kim might launch because our President, whose stability is questionable, says or tweets something provocative. Many reports have been aired by the media of several foreign countries of the mental state of President Trump and his advisors.

If our missiles start flying over China and Russia to hit North Korea will they sit idle or launch?

Baseline Syndrome

25 Saturday Mar 2017

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During an episode of Madam Secretary Secretary McCord used and explained the term “baseline syndrome.” In the story it referred to the creep of climate change. Each generation starts at a higher temperature and a more damaged ecology than the previous generation did so they don’t feel the cumulative change and damage.

The same term can apply to many situations. In the military it is called mission creep. We send 500 troops in a year with little discussion. The next year another 750 are sent which gets little discussion because it’s a little more than last year but less than 1,000. A 1,000 is big enough to sound huge. Carefully timed steps are better than one big step.

Small budget cuts that pertain to a small number of people are easier to get through than a bigger more widespread cut. Cumulative cuts are less provocative to many groups or people.

A public official might abhor any corruption but watch a game from a V.I.P. Box. The official might then allow their child to take a high paid job from someone who wants some help on some pending legislation.

A generation ago we valued our privacy. Today people put their most intimate details on social media for strangers to read.

Television, broadcast and cable shows get more risqué and violent each year as people get used to the previous level. Talk shows drag their audiences farther left and right to keep their share of ratings.

Baseline Syndrome is why those of my age group are able to talk about “the good ole’ days.”

Misdirected Funds

24 Friday Mar 2017

Posted by Commentary about the Blue Marble in Politically Correct, Politics, Uncategorized

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We have a president who said he wouldn’t take his presidential salary. We don’t yet know if he has kept that promise or if he has already blown through his presidential expense account.

What we do know is he goes to his club in Florida every other weekend at a cost of $2,500,000. As of mid-March that is $10,000,000 and rising. At that rate for four years it would be 104 trips for at least a quarter billion dollars.

For now the first lady is staying in their penthouse in New York City. A very conservative estimate is about a $1,000,000 per day. That’s a third of a billion each year.

His proposed budget cuts back on school breakfasts, healthcare for the poor, and many other costs he says our country can’t afford.

Somewhere I think our billionaire president has lost touch with how the people who elected him survive on their salaries. Is he still thinking “me, me, me” and not what he can do for the country?

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