The Future of the Auto Industry

19 Wednesday Dec 2018

Posted by in Politics, President Trump, Tariffs

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                I don’t blame President Trump for his tantrum about General Motors closing four assembly plants. They are in states he barely won by saying he would bring more and better jobs into the areas. The tariffs he put on vehicle steel and aluminum cost GM over a billion dollars. It has cost all the auto companies billions.

                If all the companies are losing or passing on the costs of tariffs, why is GM closing the plants? Anyone who has been noticing traffic for as long as I have or just for the last few years has seen the decline of the sedan. We aren’t buying sedans. We are buying pick-ups, SUVs, and some cross-overs. Ford and Chrysler have already announced their closures for 2020 to 2022. What upsets Trump is the GM closures are before the 2020 elections. Remember it’s all about him and his image, not the people.

                CEO Barra, who is a generational GM employee, is putting the company into artificial intelligence and electric vehicles. Shutting those plants saves money for GM’s future. Building cars nobody wants is irresponsible and having to sell them at a loss is stupid and she isn’t.

                So let Trump and others rant and rave but shutting those plants to meet demand is necessary. Some of those cars were being shipped to China before the Chinese put tariffs on them in response to
Trump’s tariffs on imports. Small parts suppliers around the country will be affected also. One automotive engineer said an electric car has half as many parts.

                These closings are the future of the auto industry.

Repeating History

19 Wednesday Dec 2018

Posted by in History, Politics, President Trump

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Many of us remember these words were said by a paranoid President. “I am not a crook! American deserves to know I am not a crook!” Richard Nixon was surrounded by loyal, decent people who committed crimes at his request or at the direction of his campaign or administration. A saying that must have been forgotten by some people today is: “It isn’t the crime it’s the cover-up that will get you.” Nixon and his immediate underlings had nothing to do with the Watergate break-in but the cover-up and investigations brought them all down. Most went to jail and Nixon resigned.

“There was no collusion,” and “I have done nothing wrong.” sounds a lot like President Nixon’s protests. Those statements come from a President who has no clue as to what is legal and may truly believe he can do nothing wrong, his family can do nothing wrong, and his friends can do nothing wrong as long as they are loyal to him. Unlike Nixon, Trump will viciously attack any former friend or associate if he thinks their loyalty is questionable. Like Nixon, Trump has a loyal following that will go over the cliff with him. They refuse to see the truth about a huckster.

Like Nixon, I suspect Trump may either resign or be kicked out of office. More likely he will announce in 2019 he has done all as promised and decline to run again. The latter is to stop congressional investigations before they get to him and his questionable finances.

Predictions Are Shortening

19 Wednesday Dec 2018

Posted by in Climate Change

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After reading excerpts of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Arctic report, I had to rethink my opinion on the impact of global warming and climate change. The world’s scientific community has been slowly shortening their predictions of the effects of climate change. When the effects of methane (30 times more damaging than CO2) from thawing tundra was added to our imput of CO2, the time line shortened. When the impact of melting Arctic ice cap leaving less ice to reflect sunlight was added, the time line shortened.

This year there were more climate changing gases and less ice reflection than ever before. Another reason for sadness is the Earth had less major volcanic activity putting more gas and ash into the high troposphere reflecting the sun.

I have lowered my expectations to agree with the scientists who predicted major impacts by 2050 and not 2100. The oceans are rising faster than originally predicted because of thermal expansion, melting ice caps and glaciers.

Today’s very sophisticated computer programs predict the radical weather of November and December when the jet streams dropped to the south from a warmer Arctic.

Our eastern coastal cities (Miami, Norfolk, Charleston, and New York among others) are starting to plan – too late – to make zoning changes, or build up levees and install massive pumps. I think their efforts are too little, too late. Many predictions indicate they will experience constant flooding within thirty years, not fifty or more. Miami, Charleston, and Norfolk flood with king tides now.

Alternative Schools

17 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by in Global Warming, Religion, Science

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I don’t like to criticize a person’s religious belief, but I must explain why some people hurt their children’s future. A few years ago a neighbor had loved a Muslin man while she was in college. She converted to his faith. When he went back to his country she stayed and later married an American becoming a hard right Christian and had three children.

She home schooled them because the public schools taught lies. I don’t remember what her degree was in but she made sure no secular information was heard by them. She quickly decided my three college degrees, two in physical science, were from lies and her goal was to correct my knowledge. She was teaching her kids it was impossible to go to the moon, the earth was 6,000 years old, dinosaurs were lies, Noah’s flood had covered the entire world, including Mt. Everest, and other preposterous stories like oil and coal were put there when the earth was made, and other anti-science “facts”.

I told her if her kids were not given facts instead of her “truths”, their occupations would be extremely restricted. No scientific career would be open to them. Even human and animal medical work conflicted with her teaching. History, geography, geology, social science, and most other “above the shoulder” jobs would conflict with her teaching.

Conservative laws allow her to home school her children and brainwash them into her religious belief. We have allowed too many crazy people to use home, religious, and ethnic schools to “teach” children viewpoints that are totally impossible. We allow these schools to teach hate and superiority by skewing history and science. What should really scare Americans is some of these graduates are in Congress now. Maybe that is why they are so gullible on denying climate change and science.

The Future Is Near

17 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by in Economy, Global Warming, Uncategorized

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Recently I was parked in Morris’ Jewel lot when the radio announcer discussed the closing of four American plants by General Motors. CEO Mary T. Barra said she was closing them because people weren’t buying cars made in those plants. I looked at the three rows of double lines of vehicles in the lot and noticed of the fifty plus vehicles, only three were cars. The others were SUVs and pick-ups. My primary vehicle is a Cherokee.

In our free market capitalism system, a responsible company should only manufacture what they can sell. Of the three cars, one was my 1999 Town car and I doubt the other two were built in this decade. The factories had not gone from full capacity to closing next year. They have already reduced production to meet falling demand.

Ford and Chrysler have already announced factory closings stretching out into 2022 for the same reason. We are not buying cars with good gasoline consumption but pick-ups and SUVs that often get half the car mileage. When the price of gasoline first went over $2.00 we demanded high efficiency (25 mpg) and bought them. Now we are used to $3.00 gasoline and buy vehicles with less than 25 mpg. If gasoline went to $5.00 we might buy high efficiency 40+ mpg cars or will the electrics be plentiful by then. That’s what Barra and other automotive CEOs are planning with their factory closings. They are moving us into the future now whether we want it or not!

What Is Happening To Morality?

11 Tuesday Dec 2018

Posted by in Morality, President Trump, Religion

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W. Durant said “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.” Many times I have heard the religious right talk and write about how our morals are declining. I bet it started before Rock and Roll and Elvis Presley but I am not that old. The 1960s, drugs, and protests were given as examples of our decline.

There will always be individual examples of depravity and immorality. As our population grows and the reporting increases we will see and hear more evil things. Unsocial media makes the impression of our total decline worse. We have always put some people on a pillar as a moral example only to pillorise’ them when we found they had feet in the mud. Prime examples are JFK and a host of evangelists. Political people are seldom good examples.

Today we have a President who has never risen to the level of even a poor example. He is proud of the fact that he has lied, cheated, conned, and assaulted women all his life. Every day he bullies his staff, appointees, opponents, allies, and people he doesn’t know just because he can and enjoys it. He has proclaimed his ability to assault women because he is entitled and rich.

How do the moral and religious people of this country support such an immoral person? How do his supporters tell their children to act morally and talk about how great the President is? How can a religious leader tell his flock to support someone who is the antitheses of everything they are supposed to believe? Why did they pass on other nominees who have far better morals and principles?

Would people please answer these questions?

The Truth Finally

11 Tuesday Dec 2018

Posted by in Global Warming

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Isn’t it hard to deny this planet is warming up? Heat records are falling somewhere in America almost every week. This fall saw the hottest month ever in some Northeastern states. Earlier some Southwest cities were around 115-120º. Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the East Coast have had one record breaking rain and flooding after another. The long term droughts have been briefly paused by a rain or two. Northern Illinois has been roasting this year. The oceans are rising causing some of Miami and Norfolk to be flooded with every high tide. The Navy is looking to combat the current and future flooding of bases around the world.

What will America be like in 2100? America’s scientists have decided to tell the truth hoping that we are competent enough to handle the truth. America is the only country with some normally intelligent people denying what they can see if they watch the real news and get around our country.

The rest of the world’s countries are preparing for the effects of human climate meddling and are scared to death. Even China and Russia are preparing for the effects while pushing their economic nationalism. The rest of the world’s projections say our area will have a year around temperature like central Florida. We might need year around air conditioning. Dikes and walls around Miami, Norfolk, New York, New Orleans, Galveston, Corpus Christi, and many other coastal cities won’t work. Look at a topographic map of our coasts and see how much is eight foot or less and then how many more feet will flood with storm surges.

Many acres of prime agricultural areas will be flooded by the seas, dried out, or become temperature insensitive like Napa Valley Grapes.

Equality Finally

11 Tuesday Dec 2018

Posted by in History, Military, Racism

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My schooling and books say General John J. Pershing, Commander of the troops in Europe during World War I. wouldn’t have spread his troops among the British and French Divisions. As usual history is written by the victors and glosses over the truth.

Pershing, like most of the Army, was racist. He ignored how the Black regiments had fought in the Civil War and against the Indians. They were considered unreliable so when Marshall Foch begged Pershing for some fresh troops, Pershing sent him all the Black troops he had. The French had thousands of Black troops from their colonies in Africa and the Caribbean. The French were glad to have them even if they didn’t understand French.

The American Black regiments fought very hard and won many individual and unit citations. After being treated as equals in France many stayed and married French women. Others immigrated with French passports to some of the colonies.

When World War II rolled around, Black Americans were put in logistics and many excelled in the Red Ball Express’s job of supplying Patton’s drives. Few of the millions fighting were Black troops. Even the ethnic Japanese got their own unit (442 Regiment) for a chance to make a patriotic reputation.

Equality didn’t come until Harry S. Truman mandated it. Now all colors of Americans can fight and die. A fine example of equality in the military is General Colin Powell. We could use more like him.

A Losing Economic Battle

10 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by in China, Economy

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Many times in history a smaller population has stood up to a larger population but not often have they won. Even those victories were short-lived. The United States has about 320 million people and our economic rival, China has almost five times as many Chinese. Our economy is based on a loose set of democratic ideals and China’s is a loosely directed model where private and state businesses co-exist.

The purpose of the current trade tariffs is to hold down the Chinese economy from exceeding ours and dominating the world’s economy as we have done for the last seven decades. With a directed economy the government can pick what industries will dominate, which will struggle, and which will be cut off from state support. Many of China’s basic industries, like it’s steel and aluminum, are run by the Chinese Army and subsidized by the government. That’s the reason they can flood the world with steel and aluminum cheaper than any corporation. Is it fair? No, it isn’t but they don’t have shareholders or worry about quarterly reports.

We support our industries with tax incentives, tariffs, and laws. We help with special financing like Chrysler in the 1970s, or General Motors in 2006. China’s way is much more direct and capable.For all of Trump’s sound of wind and fury, the United States is no longer the world’s economic driver and by assaulting our allies,we are reducing our chances of coordinating with them. All the President and his trade advisors are doing is creating a lot of bluster which may lead to a worse situation for our country in the future.

Is Any Job Safe

10 Monday Dec 2018

Posted by in Economy

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I never thought deeply of the economic impact electric cars will have on the economy until I read an article in a business magazine. They have about a third to half less parts than an internal combustion car. Ultimately that means most parts manufacturers must find other business because cylinders, fuel systems, engine blocks and crankshafts won’t be needed. Tens of thousands of workers will be out of work. The service businesses depending on those workers will close or be cut back. Less workers means less appliances sold and houses foreclosed or sold at depressed prices.

John J. Rockefeller made his money refining petroleum into gasoline for the growing automobile industry. Electric cars don’t need gasoline so the refiners, distributors, and others will reduce workers causing area businesses to be hurt. Of course we won’t need many oil well drillers either but we will have pumped most of the petroleum out by then.

Both of these examples won’t happen at once but will slowly happen over the next couple of years to a couple decades. The many ethanol refiners may have to close but the corn farmers will have billions more people to feed so they won’t be badly hurt. Gasoline stations will convert to being electrical charging stations. I bet soon or later battery packs will be more like those I have for my tools. A fill-up will be sliding the old pack out and the new one in.

I don’t think anyone can foresee how all this retrenchment will work out. Other jokers in the deck are artificial intelligence and robots. I don’t think any job or economy is safe.