When I was getting my Master’s degree forty-two (wow!) years ago, we studied the growth of population in the United States and the World. At the time, the world’s population was over three and a half billion and growing. Projections for growth would be six billion by 2000, seven by 2015, eight by 2030, nine by 2040, and ten by 2050. The United States had just over 205 million. Now we have over 300 million and were projected to be 350 million by 2040, and 425 million by 2050. They have been close to reality so far..
Why? the same reasons apply now as they did thousands of years ago. First, let’s consider that sex is a biologic drive which feels great. Did our “caveman” ancestor link the two events of sex and baby, we don’t know. Just like other animals, humans move out of an area to find food, water, and to push the frontiers of settlement. That is a result of a growing population. That’s why a cougar born in Minnesota was killed by a car in Connecticut last year.
The second reason is economic. Simply, the more male children a man has, the more land can be farmed, cattle raised, and game killed. This works as long as unsettled land is available for expansion. Primogeniture laws were created so the family’s land was kept at a size as to be economically viable in England. When no new lands were available for growth, people left for the new world.
The third reason is to outgrow others. Last week a Buddhist Monk told his people that the Muslins were breeding faster than Buddhists and if the Buddhists’ wanted to maintain their way of life, they needed to kill the Muslims and increase their own families. Catholics and Protestants for centuries have been told the same things about each other. In spite of the population explosion all religions seem to think they must multiply to win some race for dominance. The alternative is religions war and Europe has had centuries of these. Today’s Mideast war is about to explode out of Syria because of it’s war between two sects of the same religion. Some countries have sunny and some are Shia majorities. A strong government keeps violence to a minimum. But countries like Iraq, Syria, Iran and other countries have large population growth because they are trying to outgrow the other sect.
A fourth reason and no less important than the other three is government. Earlier in the week, I heard a financial expert say he liked America’s long term outlook because of its growing population.
Why is a growing population so important to our nation? The age pyramid and the need for a replacement workforce. Obviously when a worker retires a new worker may be needed in that slot. I say may because off-shoring and technology may have eliminated the job. the pyramid is the number of people younger and still working paying into Social Security and Medicare for seniors. A century ago, a growing population allowed the government to not consider the ramifications of too many citizens so laws and policies were designed to grow population.
Culture is another change that is required. Change has already taken a great leap in most ethic cultures. Gone is the admiration of parents who produced ten, fifteen, or more children. Now admiration here, at least in my opinion, is for small families of one or two. Quality of seems to have become more important than quantity. Birth control pills may be the key to that trend.
The government needs to adopt a complete policy change or else the 422 million projection for 2050 will become true. A third more in thirty-five years! First, eliminate child payments for all welfare. Second, the state would cut payments to the mother and father for any children born while on welfare. Third, public campaigns in Spanish, as well as English, to change the rate of growth. Fourth, we spend more money on extending life spans and increasing fertility than in reducing the growth: that needs to change..
People equate replacement to control, it isn’t. Replace is a static number. Replacement isn’t two kids in your twenties, four grand children in your forties, eight in your sixties, and sixteen in your eighties. That’s actual feet on the ground, just for your side of the replacement theory of thirty-two. How is that replacement?
Consider this. If we don’t adopt a strident population policy, we will have, by the end of the century, about three-quarters of a billion people and the world, barring famine, over fourteen billion!!!
Commentary About the Blue Marble 